Next Madeiran regional election

Next Madeiran regional election

On or before October 2028
47 seats to the Legislative Assembly of Madeira 24 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
JPP Leader Miguel Albuquerque Paulo Cafôfo Élvio Sousa Party PSD PS JPP Leader since 10 January 2015 2 December 2023 27 January 2015 Last election 19 seats, 36.1% 11 seats, 21.3% 9 seats, 16.9% Seats needed 5 13 15   CH IL Leader Miguel Castro José Manuel Rodrigues TBD Party CH CDS–PP IL Leader since 2022 14 April 2024 2024 Last election 4 seats, 9.2% 2 seats, 4.0% 1 seats, 2.6% Seats needed 20 22 23   PAN Leader Mónica Freitas Party PAN Leader since 2023 Last election 1 seats, 1.9% Seats needed 23
Incumbent President Miguel Albuquerque PSD

The next Madeiran regional election will be held on or before October 2028, the composition of the Legislative Assembly of the Autonomous Region of Madeira. The election will replace all 47 members of the Madeira Assembly, and the new members will then elect the President of the Autonomous Region.

The incumbent President since 2015 is Miguel Albuquerque, from the Social Democratic Party (PSD). The Social Democrats are defending their dominance in the islands, which they have held since 1976.

Background

After the 2024 election, despite being marred in an ongoing corruption investigation, the Social Democratic Party was once again the most voted party with 36.1% of the votes. Despite their victory, the PSD failed to win a majority of the seats.

The Socialist Party (PS) led by former Funchal mayor Paulo Cafôfo achieved a similar result to the 2023 elections, with 21.3% of the votes. The big surprise of the election was the regionalist party Together for the People (JPP), who gained 4 seats from their previous 5 seats and who achieved 16.9% of the votes. After the election, PS and JPP struck a deal in order to make a coalition government and prevent a government led by Albuquerque, despite not having a majority.

Miguel Albuquerque negotiated a parliamentary support agreement with the CDS–People's Party (CDS–PP), their previous coalition partners, in order to form a minority government. Albuquerque was appointed as President and will have a vote of confidence in the regional parliament.

See also: 2024 Madeiran regional election § Aftermath

Albuquerque presented his government programme to the Speaker of the Regional Parliament, José Manuel Rodrigues, on 14 June 2024, with Miguel Albuqerque saying that policies of all Opposition parties were included in the document. However, the Socialist Party (PS), Together for the People (JPP) and Chega (CH) announced they will vote against Albuquerque in the vote of confidence on 20 June 2024, thus putting at risk the continuity of the regional government. Facing a rejection, Albuquerque withdrew, on 19 June, his programme from the assembly and announced negotiations to present a new one, thus cancelling the 20 June vote.

If the government programme is rejected, the government could remain in a caretaker capacity until a new one is nominated, under Albuquerque again, under a new PSD leader, or under someone else from the Opposition, or a snap election, which would be the third in just more than a year, is called for January 2025.

Leadership changes and challenges

Liberal Initiative

Nuno Morna, regional party leader, announced on 16 June 2024 he was stepping down from the party's leadership, but remaining as regional Parliament member. Duarte Gouveia, Morna's predecessor in the leadership post, announced his intention to return to the party's leadership.

Electoral system

The current 47 members of the Madeiran regional parliament are elected in a single constituency by proportional representation under the D'Hondt method, coinciding with the territory of the Region.

Parties

Current composition

The table below lists parties represented in the Legislative Assembly of Madeira before the election.

Name			Ideology	Leader	2024 result
					%	Seats
	PSD	Social Democratic Party Partido Social Democrata	Liberal conservatism	Miguel Albuquerque	36.1%	19 / 47
	PS	Socialist Party Partido Socialista	Social democracy	Paulo Cafôfo	21.3%	11 / 47
	JPP	Together for the People Juntos pelo Povo	Centrism	Élvio Sousa	16.9%	9 / 47
	CH	Enough! Chega!	National conservatism	Miguel Castro	9.2%	4 / 47
	CDS–PP	CDS – People's Party Centro Democrático Social – Partido Popular	Christian democracy	José Manuel Rodrigues	4.0%	2 / 47
	IL	Liberal Initiative Iniciativa Liberal	Classical liberalism	TBD	2.6%	1 / 47
	PAN	People Animals Nature Pessoas Animais Natureza	Animal welfare	Mónica Freitas	1.9%	1 / 47

Opinion polls

Polls that show their results without distributing those respondents who are undecided or said they would abstain from voting, are re-calculated by removing these numbers from the totals through a simple rule of three, in order to obtain results comparable to other polls and the official election results.

Polling

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout										O	Lead
2024 EP election	9 Jun 2024	—	41.6	42.7 (23)		26.0 (14)	—	9.1 (4)	5.4 (2)	1.9 (1)	1.9 (1)	2.9 (1)	10.1 (1)	16.7
2024 regional election	26 May 2024	—	53.4	36.1 19	4.0 2	21.3 11	16.9 9	9.2 4	2.6 1	1.9 1	1.6 0	1.4 0	5.0 0	14.8

External links

• Election results
• Comissão Nacional de Eleições